The Power Of Rebound

Last week, Monday, we were greeted by the news that the satisfaction and trust ratings of President Rodrigo “Digong” Roa Duterte had fallen. These happened in the quarterly surveys of the Social Weather Stations (SWS) between the second and third quarters of this year.

Critics and the Opposition were quick to grab the above as signs that the Honeymoon with the Duterte Administration was over and that the beginning of the end had started. However, we should caution everyone to study the matter closely first before drawing such conclusions.

The SWS system subtracts the negative from the positive. Then, it gives you a net satisfaction or trust rating. That is like a right minus wrong grading system. For example, the usual system would be that if you get eighty out of one hundred correct, your grade would be eighty percent. However, if we do it the SWS way, it would be eighty minus twenty equals sixty. Eighty appears and sounds good while sixty appears and sounds bad. However. they are exactly the same.

 

From Where Votes Came

The decrease occurred in the D & E socio-economic classes. These are the classes that deliver the quantity of votes needed to win elections. However, elections are still very far away. It is the ABC classes that influence others more in the time before the elections.

The drop happened in only two out of four areas that the nationwide survey was divided into – “Rest of Luzon” and the “Visayas”. Duterte maintained his ratings in NCR and Mindanao.

The Administration, the incumbent and the side that wields power has the power of rebound. The Cory, Ramos and Erap Administrations displayed this dramatically.  

 

Yesterday

About a third of the way into her Administration (Feb 25, 1986 – June 30, 1992), the Cory Administration appeared to be in paralysis. She had been wracked by several coup attempts. Then, in October of 1998, she delivered her “Committee of One” speech at the Manila Hotel. Instantly, she was able to reverse the perception people had of her Administration.

Halfway into his six years, President Fidel Valdez Ramos’s Administration was wracked by three crises.  A Filipina domestic worker in Singapore. Flor Contemplacion, was convicted of murder and executed. A combination of Muslim rebel groups raided the town of Ipil in Zamboanga del Sur on April 3, 1995. Today, Ipil is the capital of a separate province, Zamboanga Sibugay. Finally, a rice crisis occurred. A shortage occurred, Lines developed. The price went up. 

Ramos’s popularity, satisfaction and trust ratings went down. However, by 1996, he had recovered.

President Joseph Ejercito Estrada maintained his popularity for a year and a quarter. In the last quarter of 1999, his popularity, satisfaction and trust ratings started to drop. In the first quarter of 2000, the trend continued. The same would have happened in the second quarter except that the “All-out war in Mindanao” flared up. The latter reversed the trend and Erap’s ratings went up in the second and third quarters.

 

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